The brain is the engine of thought and action, and the brain is entirely physical. Imagine that our understanding of the laws of physics evolves to a state that we can accurately predict how people's brains will react, and thus how people think in response to events in their environment. Such a machine is Pierre.
A brain scanner maps the brain states of a person. Then the supercomputer Pierre, monitors the various stimuli the person is exposed to and will then predict what their future behavior will be. But there are limitations. This technology works best in a controlled and enclosed environment akin to a lab experiment. And therefore the predictions can only be made a few moments ahead, since tiny errors in predictions escalate to large ones. But the computer can nonetheless predict how the person will react for the next few moments. In a sense we will be able to know the person's mind better than they do themselves. (Source: The deterministic thesis of the French mathematician Pierre-Simon Laplace)
When I read this scenario in the chapter, I was unsure of what the main questions/issues it dictated for discussion. The possibility of such an evolution in the world of science? The ethics behind using such a powerful technology? The implications on what the mind is, if it could be dissected so clearly by science? Is it a violation of some sort? Does it mean we humans are reduced to machines who can be predicted through their inputs? Is our free will, or ability to act as free agents, being threatened in some way if such a machine could exist?
To begin with, do I concede to the possibility (at least theoretical) of such a machine? Well, my knowledge of quantum physics is little to none, so I don't think I'm qualified to argue either ways. So for the purpose of this thought experiment let me assume that there can be such a machine; I take Laplace's word for it :) . Well then if the machine could predict our next state based on the physical states of our brain and environment, then does it mean our thoughts are no more random than physical causal events in the universe? Does it imply our actions are not entirely free, they are obvious consequences that we follow through with?
Well, I was thinking of the difference between prediction and freedom/free will, and the relationship they have between each other. It took me to astrology... then to destiny... and then to a wall :). An age old question again. Are we in control of our lives, or is everything "predestined", "meant-to-be" and hence subject to prediction based on our physical states? I seem to be asking more questions than try to answer them :)
Ok for one, the machine can only predict the next state lasting a few moments into future, not more than that....and that too in a controlled environment. Life is not really a controlled environment. And I don't know what sort of predictions on future actions/behavior the machine can make. Is it something as precise as "the person will now occupy the red chair, five seats from his right?", or something with a tinge of conditional probability stating "the person will likely drink water since it was hot out". If it were similar to the latter, then I don't see it as a threat to free will. All of us can predict and judge our close ones on their likes and dislikes, behavioral patterns, and can make predictions on the food they would order, the clothes they would buy, their reactions to situations etc. It doesn't mean they are stripped of their free will, their freedom is intact. They eventually choose to do what they want to. There will be a margin of error in our predictions. But if the prediction were as precise as the former, then it is surely unsettling. If it were based on behavioral and psychological patterns then it's not as alarming... for that's what psychologists aim at (although they would still account for a margin of error)
Why is it unsettling - 1) one is the fact that all these predictions were made not based on psychological attributes, but on physical states, 2) there is probably no margin of error in the prediction lasting to the next few moments, 3) there is seemingly no logic to some "random" actions... we ourselves wouldn't know why we decided to sit on that specific red chair to the right. It was random, yet a machine could attribute some sort of "causal link", 4) there is no real uniqueness to our thoughts and actions. It all would depend on neurons firing away based on the physical state of our brain.
So yes, I do see ourselves as predestined agents with a disillusioned sense of free will if there could be a machine predicting even our seemingly random actions with a high degree of precision, all based on physical brain states. It doesn't matter if the prediction is only valid for the next few moments; if there were some feedback loop, then the machine can continuously predict our next states in consecutive small intervals. But if the environment were too controlled so as to drastically cut down the choices normally available in real life then the predictions have a higher chance of being mathematically accurate, and they seem to lessen the severity of the threat on free will; not convincing enough to disregard the threat.
Now taking a slight detour - I am curious about what one's belief in destiny is. There are some who take comfort in the knowledge that their lives are destined and set. Failures are not seen as harsh since they resign that no matter how hard they tried there was a greater force that they couldn't alter. Their actions are hence not blamed as much, they seem to cope up with changes in life, and are resilient to adapting since they accept each turn of event as the work of destiny. On the other hand, are those who can't accept that their lives are being controlled in some manner. They want to be in charge of their lives, and cringe from the possibility that their actions are not entirely their free will. And some in the middle, who view a little of both happening. I sometimes think Life is a game similar to Monopoly. There is an element of chance/luck due to the throw of the die. But once we reach the spot, what we choose to do at that juncture is up to us, our free will.... although our choices are very limited due to the rules. Who framed the rules of Life? Many times society, many times we ourselves.
********************
Update: I just came across a wonderful post here: http://pritigem.blogspot.com/2008/08/does-god-play-dice-excerpt-from.html where the author has done a good job of bringing in the perspectives of determinism from the standpoint of Laplace, Heisenberg and Einstein. It adds the much needed physics-dimension to the discussion.
A brain scanner maps the brain states of a person. Then the supercomputer Pierre, monitors the various stimuli the person is exposed to and will then predict what their future behavior will be. But there are limitations. This technology works best in a controlled and enclosed environment akin to a lab experiment. And therefore the predictions can only be made a few moments ahead, since tiny errors in predictions escalate to large ones. But the computer can nonetheless predict how the person will react for the next few moments. In a sense we will be able to know the person's mind better than they do themselves. (Source: The deterministic thesis of the French mathematician Pierre-Simon Laplace)
When I read this scenario in the chapter, I was unsure of what the main questions/issues it dictated for discussion. The possibility of such an evolution in the world of science? The ethics behind using such a powerful technology? The implications on what the mind is, if it could be dissected so clearly by science? Is it a violation of some sort? Does it mean we humans are reduced to machines who can be predicted through their inputs? Is our free will, or ability to act as free agents, being threatened in some way if such a machine could exist?
To begin with, do I concede to the possibility (at least theoretical) of such a machine? Well, my knowledge of quantum physics is little to none, so I don't think I'm qualified to argue either ways. So for the purpose of this thought experiment let me assume that there can be such a machine; I take Laplace's word for it :) . Well then if the machine could predict our next state based on the physical states of our brain and environment, then does it mean our thoughts are no more random than physical causal events in the universe? Does it imply our actions are not entirely free, they are obvious consequences that we follow through with?
Well, I was thinking of the difference between prediction and freedom/free will, and the relationship they have between each other. It took me to astrology... then to destiny... and then to a wall :). An age old question again. Are we in control of our lives, or is everything "predestined", "meant-to-be" and hence subject to prediction based on our physical states? I seem to be asking more questions than try to answer them :)
Ok for one, the machine can only predict the next state lasting a few moments into future, not more than that....and that too in a controlled environment. Life is not really a controlled environment. And I don't know what sort of predictions on future actions/behavior the machine can make. Is it something as precise as "the person will now occupy the red chair, five seats from his right?", or something with a tinge of conditional probability stating "the person will likely drink water since it was hot out". If it were similar to the latter, then I don't see it as a threat to free will. All of us can predict and judge our close ones on their likes and dislikes, behavioral patterns, and can make predictions on the food they would order, the clothes they would buy, their reactions to situations etc. It doesn't mean they are stripped of their free will, their freedom is intact. They eventually choose to do what they want to. There will be a margin of error in our predictions. But if the prediction were as precise as the former, then it is surely unsettling. If it were based on behavioral and psychological patterns then it's not as alarming... for that's what psychologists aim at (although they would still account for a margin of error)
Why is it unsettling - 1) one is the fact that all these predictions were made not based on psychological attributes, but on physical states, 2) there is probably no margin of error in the prediction lasting to the next few moments, 3) there is seemingly no logic to some "random" actions... we ourselves wouldn't know why we decided to sit on that specific red chair to the right. It was random, yet a machine could attribute some sort of "causal link", 4) there is no real uniqueness to our thoughts and actions. It all would depend on neurons firing away based on the physical state of our brain.
So yes, I do see ourselves as predestined agents with a disillusioned sense of free will if there could be a machine predicting even our seemingly random actions with a high degree of precision, all based on physical brain states. It doesn't matter if the prediction is only valid for the next few moments; if there were some feedback loop, then the machine can continuously predict our next states in consecutive small intervals. But if the environment were too controlled so as to drastically cut down the choices normally available in real life then the predictions have a higher chance of being mathematically accurate, and they seem to lessen the severity of the threat on free will; not convincing enough to disregard the threat.
Now taking a slight detour - I am curious about what one's belief in destiny is. There are some who take comfort in the knowledge that their lives are destined and set. Failures are not seen as harsh since they resign that no matter how hard they tried there was a greater force that they couldn't alter. Their actions are hence not blamed as much, they seem to cope up with changes in life, and are resilient to adapting since they accept each turn of event as the work of destiny. On the other hand, are those who can't accept that their lives are being controlled in some manner. They want to be in charge of their lives, and cringe from the possibility that their actions are not entirely their free will. And some in the middle, who view a little of both happening. I sometimes think Life is a game similar to Monopoly. There is an element of chance/luck due to the throw of the die. But once we reach the spot, what we choose to do at that juncture is up to us, our free will.... although our choices are very limited due to the rules. Who framed the rules of Life? Many times society, many times we ourselves.
********************
Update: I just came across a wonderful post here: http://pritigem.blogspot.com/2008/08/does-god-play-dice-excerpt-from.html where the author has done a good job of bringing in the perspectives of determinism from the standpoint of Laplace, Heisenberg and Einstein. It adds the much needed physics-dimension to the discussion.
